Clash of the Insurgents Part I

The Netherlands has rejected the alt-right, far-right, ultra-right, or whatever is in the right, Geert Wilders and his anti-immigrant and anti-EU political agendas. Last election’s result was consistent to what the opinion polls have expected. Add to that the fact PVV finished in the second place of election, he will not form a coalition in Tweede Kamer. For that being said, Mark Rutte will govern the Netherlands for, at least, the next 5 years. Supposing the government do not collapse.

So, while I’m making an article regarding the Dutch Election result, I have prepared my another political analysis: French Presidential Election. I have studied this election, from the candidates to political situations, since last year and could not get anyway more excited to share this with you.

This French Presidential Election will be very hard to predict. For the first time since the first direct presidential election in the Fifth French Republic, there is no certainty who will be qualified to the second round of election. In this France’s most consequential election, French people will have to cast their vote four times. It is not only the two-round presidential election that will determine the country’s future. A legislative election, which also be chosen for another two rounds will lead the way where France is heading.

Along with the start of the first presidential debate, which is planned for 20 March, there are five most important or a key political topics in this election right now, include:

• The Economy: consistent budget deficits, taxation, and high unemployment rate.
• Labour Market: reforms to the retirement age, power of Labour Unions, and youth employment issues.
• Security & Immigration: the post-Paris and Nice attacks and its impacts, border security, Islamist terrorism, interventions in Africa, and migrant crisis in Europe.
• Social: Integration of migrant populations from Middle East and North Africa, social exclusions, and discrimination.
• Europe: Support for the European Union, redefine power transfers to the EU, diplomatic relationship between France and Germany, and the possibility for another withdrawal referendum from the EU.

Before we begin, take a closer look of who are the frontrunner candidates:

1. François Fillon (Les Républicains)

Last year, we have seen a very unexpected riddance of many contenders and key politicians in the run and also, the rise of the unexpected ones that nobody never expected before.

Last November 2016, Nicolas Sarkozy was knocked out by his in the first round of Les Rèpublicains primary, which followed by another key politician Alain Juppé in the final round. It was definitely out of the clear blue, François Fillon, who was a prime minister under Sarkozy’s era, whom Sarkozy used to say as his “employee”, took a surprise lead with 44.1 percent win over M. Juppé with 28.3 percent, and M. Sarkozy with 20.9 percent.

This surprise has transformed the dynamics of the French presidential election. Fillon is a devout Catholic with economically liberal and socially conservative views. His victory in the primary somehow appeals to the traditional French traditionalists. These voters are alienated from the metropolitan Parisian and have been flirting with the National Front, but now they have discovered a champion whom they can surely elect.

As Fillon was announced as the winner of the primary, he will be predicted to win the presidency. What’s not to like about Fillon as a President? An upstanding family man, untainted by scandal, a devout Catholic man. So likeable. However, in February, his chances of winning France’s presidency have plunged due to the allegations of hiring his wife. Nevertheless, I would not rule out his position in this election, hence I will share his policies.

Economic Plan

Fillon is an economic liberal who loves Margareth Thatcher. Take a look at his economic program:

–      Cut 500,000 civil service jobs of jobs in public sector

–      Repeal François Hollande’s wealth tax

–      Raise the retirement age by three years (you can only retire by 65)

–     Raise VAT (Value-added Taxation) by 2%. VAT is a kind of tax in which you give to the government on taking the goods and services at each stage of production, starting from raw materials to final product. You can figure out how the VAT works.

–      Slash employment benefit

–      Cut unemployment rate by 7% of the workforce in five years.

–      Reverting the work week back to 39 hours but paid less than 39-hours.

Fillon’s Position on Russia, Syria, and Islam

On his view with Islam, Fillon has described the Radicalism in Islam as a “totalitarianism” and even compared it to the 1930s tyrannies. He has vowed to reduce the immigration to its strict minimum. After the Nice attack, Fillon released a book called Islamic Totalitarianism. Fillon, with the topic of Syria, considers that France should be open on the Syrian regime and to cooperate with Damascus in order to combat ISIS and terrorism. Fillon even proposed to launch a communication with the Syrian regime and has criticised François Hollande for practicing a wrong policy by supporting the opposition and calling on Assad to leave. As for the national policies, Fillon seeks to prevent the French nationals who have joined the extremist organisations by revoking their citizenships. He also intends to kick out foreigners who have proved to cooperate with extremist group.

Meanwhile on Russia, Fillon has a positive outlook on Paris’ relationship with Moscow, the major supporter of the Syrian regime. Vladimir Putin has praised Fillon as a “great professional” and “very principled person”. Alain Juppé was not happy with this.

“This must be the first presidential election in which the Russian president chooses his candidate – that slightly shocked me.”

Unlike his rival in the primary, who wants to maintain a frozen relationship with Russia, Fillon has called for more cooperation with Russia. He has called on the Europeans to enhance ties with Putin, despite of his support for the sanctions against Russia for annexing the Crimea. Fillon’s foreign policy will obviously influence the debates in tomorrow’s presidential debate and will be scrutinised and countered by his opponent like Hamon and Macron who are a Pro-European.

2. Marine Le Pen (Front National)

There is no one in France happier on Trump’s victory than Marine Le Pen, who is running for president in April 2017. Marine Le Pen is going from strength to strength nowadays. Brief introduction about Marine Le Pen, she is a far-right political figure who leads a far-right party, National Front. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was a longtime National Front leader. Among European Parliament, she is considered as the most powerful far-right politician in Europe and the second-most powerful politician in the parliament, after its President Martin Schulz.

During her political career, she is marked with her controversial statements, which leads to racism, xenophobia, and islamophobia whilst other people believe, Le Pen is a person who is fighting to bring back what was once owned by France.

Le Pen’s policies is entirely of hard-line protectionism:

• Leaving the European Union and NATO
• Revoking EU’s Schengen Zone
• Bringing back the French Franc as a currency
• Limiting immigration to only 10,000 people / year
• Deporting illegal immigrants and those who are legals yet committed a crime in France
• Opposing multiculturalism
• Proposing to remove the dual-citizenships. French national with two citizenships has to choose either French or other country passport he needs to carry while travelling.

On the economy, Le Pen has a contrast view to Fillon, as a fellow candidate from the right. She has shifted her economic policy in a more hard-left policies, such as:

• Aggressive defence of the public sector;
• Against the globalisation;
• Lowering the retirement age to 60;
• Imposes taxes on hiring overseas workers. Buy French, Hire French.

Is France the Next to Leave the EU?

Let’s talk about Frexit. Let’s talk about how likely the Frexit or French Exit could happen. Since Britain voted to leave the European Union, Le Pen may have gained a momentum in France.

Technically, France can quit the European Union and leave Euro and reinvent their old currency. Leaving the Eurozone would put the member of Eurozone struggle to survive if France as one of EU’s two main economic powerhouse pulled out. France would find economically struggle after leaving Euro. Like Britain, its currency would probably devalued against Euro, which resulted to the import costs. By France leaving the EU and Eurozone, this could mean, Germany would be a single player to underpin the finances of financially-struggling countries. Imagine if Germany would also quit, German banks itself hold plenty of Euro-denominated debt. Its withdrawal would definitely light a bomb under European banking systems. Any possibilities might happen.

However, the real question is: Can Frexit Really Happen? It is unlikely, but not impossible. The Frexit could be tricky even if Le Pen were elected as a President. Here is why:

You might want to see this as a start. In the French Constitution Title XV Article 88, it states:

   “The Republic is a part of the European Union”

Therefore, prior to the referendum, Le Pen would have to change a constitution which    is difficult, but not impossible. Le Pen has promised to seek revised terms for the membership of France, and ask in a referendum if the voters want to leave. This would not be impossible.

In Title XVI, Article 89 of the constitution, it goes like this

“The President of the Republic, on the recommendation of the Prime Minister, and Members of Parliament alike shall have the right to initiate amendments to the Constitution”

Let’s assume, if she does become a president, she will definitely get a recommendation from the Prime Minister because she would choose it by herself. How about the National Assembly and the Senate?

Any change of the constitution has to be approved by both of the house of parliament. This means, she would have to expect a very strong parliamentary majority filled by Front National. For a record, France’s two-round electoral system has so far ensured there are only two far-right members of parliament and two senators. By the same token, if she passes the amendment and held a referendum, added with the effect of Brexit to the United Kingdom, it would likely be a “REMAIN” vote with huge numbers of abstain. The Brexit negotiations itself is a long and complex. To add one more fact: In 1982, Greenland voted to leave the Union and it took until 1985 until the negotiations were completed.

3. Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)

In August 2016, he had resigned in order to focus on his independent presidential bid. The former French Minister of Economy is not only fairly popular, but also known for his fearless reforms regarding economic liberalism. He is a Europhile and a darling of many enthusiastic young voters.

Macron currently is in a second-place of first-round but predicted will lead over Le Pen with a constant number at 61% by every opinion polls. What’s not to like about Emmanuel Macron? A young, skilled, and independent politician with an appreciation of free markets. As a minister, he initiated the Macron’s Law, contained a number of changes to legislation regarding Economic, Labour, and Transport law. Macron opened up the inter-city bus market, a measure that created competition on the market, lowered transportation costs, and created 13,000 private sector jobs.

Meanwhile, The Business Insider points out Macron’s proposal:

• Target €60bn cut in public spending in within five years, up to 50 percent of GDP.
• Cut 120,000 states jobs by not replacing it with retiring workers.
• Limit wealth tax to real estate.
• Lower corporate tax from 33 percent to 25 percent.
• Keep deficit below 3 percent of GDP, in line with EU requirements.
• Nationalise unemployment insurance scheme
• Keep 35-hour working week.
• Exempt 80 per cent of households from local housing tax — a €10bn measure.
• Pro-European. Negotiate a eurozone budget and EU-wide investment program with Germany.

In term of security and immigration, Macron will have France remain within Schengen but boost its external frontier policing by 5,000. He will hire 10,000 police officers in first three years.

There are few reasons to be worried about Macron and there are few to make the voters optimistic. Let us assess Macron’s plan to shape the country. Macron is also known to be a great defender of free trade, however, the 53 percent of French public believe that free trade has a negative impact on consumer prices; 69 per cent assert that it aggravates the deficit; and 81 percent believe it has a negative impact on employment. However, I’m quite impressed with his lecture in Berlin. He will bring an important asset for free markets that will change how French people view the Union. Go take a look.

Macron came as an Independent, for that being said, he is not a Socialist Party member anymore. He needs a political majority with a government willing to go through the months of protest in 2014 for his La Loi Macron (The Macron’s Law). So will Le Pen, he will need a majority in parliament. En Marche! and Macron himself will find it hard to gain a support from both wings. Although he represents himself as a centrist, some say his policies are more leaning to the left. It is clear, that the Parti Socialiste is unlikely to rally behind Macron, even though some of the SP notable politicians openly support his candidacy, many MPs will still support Benoît Hamon and his hard-left policies. While, The Republicains, after the Penelopegate, will focus to gather  majority in the parliamentary elections.

4. Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Parti de Gauche)

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rose to national prominence in 2012 Presidential election. The “alternative” candidate like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Bernie Sanders, or Podemos is probably the most dramatic event of what has been a fairly boring and stale campaign in their own country.

A former Socialist cabinet minister and one of the top figures in the left-wing, Mélenchon created the Left Party (Parti de Gauche) in 2008 which claims to emulate German Die Linke (The Left). Although the PG as an individual political party has a limited base, it has the sizeable benefit for having its leader a dynamic, charismatic, and assertive man who has proven capable of reinvigorating the left of the Socialist Party.

The Frenchman Bernie Sanders known for his personality. Mélenchon has successfully claimed the mantle of anti-system/anti-establishment. He is somewhat a revolutionary candidate of the left-wing. Melenchon positioned himself as the people’s candidate. He passionately defends the idea of a new Republic that gives back the power to the people and abolishes the current system. His whole rhetoric standing outside the system and his tirades against big business and corporations, makes him a natural fit for these anti-system protest voters who in the past have flirted with Front National. Mélenchon is successfully capitalising the left-wing voters’ disappointment in Hollande’s presidency.

There are similarities between Melenchon’s platform and Le Pen’s, as both are sceptical of the EU and globalisation, but they differ sharply on other issues including migration. Sound familiar? One cannot really dispute the idea that the Front National attracted traditionally left-wing voters, usually middle-class or working class, who were disappointed by the current establishment. There are certain grounds for The Left voters to switch to the Front National: two protest parties, both attracting support from “unhappy” protest, both speak out against the big corporations, and those who prey on the poor people. It is quite likely that the far-left voters will vote for Le Pen in the second round with expectation Le Pen would re-negotiate her anti-immigration agendas, which I found impossible. The opinion poll in the left candidates doesn’t sound good to the ears. Many have predicted the run-off election will not belong to either Mélenchon or Hamon.

5. Benoît Hamon (Socialist Party)

Hamon won the Socialist Party primary in January by actually being a socialist, as opposed to his rival, Manuel Valls, who promoted centre-right austerity policies while served as a Prime Minister. He has also been critical to François Hollande, believing he is not a good representation to represent the values for the Socialist Party. His victory says much about the desire for change after the disappointment of Hollande. The fact Hamon defeated Valls in the primary is as much a vote of no-confidence in Valls and also discredited presidency of François Hollande.

Hamon has backpedalled on his proposal for a universal basic income for everyone between the ages of 18 and 25, regardless of the income. He is also calling for a salary boost only for those that earn 1.9 times the minimum wage or less. In addition, Hamon has proposed that this financial aid be determined depending on income. Those who are unemployed would receive a larger sum, which would up to 600 per month. Those who have jobs, would receive less. Those economic plans puts him exactly to the left of his party’s spectrum.

Hamon first challenge is not that easy. He will have to unite a very polarised and dispirited left. He has a strong rival, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other candidates from the left parties. He also faces a strong competition from Macron, who is also another defector from Hollande’s inner circle. The biggest job also awaits for him. He needs to strike a deal with Jean-Luc Mélenchon if he succeeded to make it past the first round of election.

PART II CLICK HERE