One day ahead of the Dutch parliamentary election. This election is attracting global attention for the one and only reason: we may see another political anomaly that have been ignited by the wave of right-wing populist after the Brexit and Donald Trump. I can say this year, the future of Europe is at stake. There are three pivotal elections in European countries: the Dutch, French, and German elections. If Wilders with his PVV, Le Pen with her FN, and Frauke Petry with her AfD, could sweep these elections, this would be a monumental and defining event in the World history.

Prior to the election day, the campaigns of different political parties have been in a full progress. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) has been emphasizing the traditional Christian value. The Socialist Party of Netherlands (SP) has promised to increase taxation for the upper class. The Dutch version of PM Trudeau, Jesse Klaver, who is also the leader of The Green Party (GL), pushes his campaign through his green politics agenda and persuades people that the Dutch should be more open to the refugees. While, the Labour Party of Netherlands (PvDA), has to accept the fact that they would shrink up to 70% of their seats in the upcoming election.

PVV: Downfall or Salvation for the Netherlands?

Meanwhile, as in many other European countries where the populist radical right party has become a prominent force, The Party for Freedom (PVV) has attracted a substantial support with their radical agendas consist of blaming the Moroccans, opposing immigration, anti-Sharia Law, anti-multiculturalism, and Euroscepticism. The leader, Geert Wilders, whose blood is mixed of Dutch and Indonesian, is going from strength to strength.

I do not suspect a strong surge in voters for the PVV. Since Brexit now can be seen as a failure for Britain, Nexit (a portmanteau of “Netherlands” and “Exit”) is not a strong platform for the PVV to run on. Most of Dutch people should have realized that their entire economy depends on trade. Unlike Great Britain, they are a small nation and leaving the EU would devastate their economy.

Although the anti-Islamic platform Wilders is running on has gained a steady ground, however it is not sufficient for a major victory. The PVV comes out very strongly in support for economic reason, healthcare, and the Moroccans and Turks issues in the country. Most people only want this issue to be over and done with. Other than that, it also gives them the idea they are ‘taking back’ their country. It is clear that these issues have provided PVV with a good support among the population.

Surge of Socialist Party

Socialist Party is another major populist party in the Netherlands, with more positive attitude than the PVV. Ideologically, the SP is opposed to the PVV’s anti-Islamic rhetoric, and instead focuses almost entirely on economic issues. Like Berniecrats, the Socialist Party strongly opposes privatization of public service and quite critical of globalization. The strong areas where the Socialist Party can earn many voters are in employment, social welfare, solidarity, and investment in public education, safety, and healthcare. The SP has been strongly criticizing the austerity of the current Cabinet that has gone too far and that the budget cuts have damaged the economy. The SP surprisingly has also embraced some of the PVV’s critique of the EU. They support the idea of European superstate but criticise that the current system of the EU is corrupt.

How Far Wilders Will Go?

As PVV is expected to win 25–30 of the parliament seats, and set to be the largest party in the upcoming election replacing the VVD, will Wilders manage to be the ruler of the Netherlands? How likely could he be the Prime Minister?

My personal answer is: five percent. which absolutely means nothing. Really.

The MSM answer is also: zero percent.

I know. People should not have trusted the MSM, since their failure at predicting the impossibility of Brexit and Donald Trump. However, the electoral system in the Netherlands is different to the US or UK system. They do not rely on the popular vote like in the UK or USA. Besides, the Dutch election is about voting for the party rather than the Prime Minister.

First thing first, let us prepare ourselves for a Dutch civics lesson.

There are four layers of government in the Netherlands: local councils, provincial councils, the lower house of parliament (Tweede Kamer) and the upper house of parliament (Eerste Kamer). Tweede Kamer is composed by 150 MPs and they are elected in every four years, or could be earlier if the government collapses. Meanwhile, in the upper house, there are 75 members who are also elected in every four years. The senate has a lesser power in the government. Unlike the US Senate, Eerste Kamer’s job is only to reflect the implications of new legislation. They do not have power to amend the legislations; they can only either accept it or reject it.

The most pivotal part of this general election season is the post-election. Your party would need to be the party with most seats in the new Parliament. The King would invite you to form a new Government afterwards. The process of government formation could take a few months. The last government formation took 56 days, while the Dutch record after the World War II was 208 days.

Winning the most seats does not necessarily mean winning enough seats to be a Prime Minister. In order to be a Prime Minister, your party has to win at least 50% + 1 of the 150 total seats. If you have reached the number to form a majority, your work is over. You will become the leader of majority party hence you will also become the Prime Minister. However, if you have not won sufficient seats for an outright majority, you will have to seek support from other parties with similar political views to yours and seek to form a grand coalition with them.

The PVV has been sinking in the polls lately. According to the polls, as of 13 March 2017, PVV will still be projected to win at least 25 seats in the Tweede Kamer, so will the VVD. By considering the total number of seats, which is 150, Wilders is not even close to be a majority. Therefore, he will need to form a coalition with the mainstream parties.

All other parties have declared they will rule out to form a coalition with PVV. Neither the VVD nor CDA, as the two current biggest parties, would be a part of governing coalition, although they both had a minority coalition supported by the PVV. Meanwhile, from the PVV itself, it is impossible for them to persuade the political adversaries like PvDA, D66 (Left-wing liberal), Green, and SP to join a coalition.

This is what the opinion polls have projected for the upcoming election (as of 13 March 2017)

I tried to create a scenario by using Coalitiemeter which based on the recent polls. Since the VVD would win as many as the PVV would, the coalitions outside either VVD or PVV will not likely to happen. Since many of the parties have refused to work with PVV, the VVD will be almost certainly in any kind of coalitions. In addition, SP has also declared they will stay at the periphery. I do not know where this is going, but I need to exclude the SP.

Let us take a look at this:

The percentage on the left is the estimate overlap in the party platforms. The smaller the number is, the better they will be a coalition. Since they produce a small number of rejections and high number of receptions in the policies of VVD, based on this prediction, in order to form a grand coalition with 76 or more seats in the parliament, VVD needs at least four parties with 34% suitability. We may see the left-wing parties will be rather divided, but I think one of the more left-wing parties will be able to convince others’ voters, including the Socialist Party, that joining the coalitions would give them more leverage in the negotiations. This is common for the Cabinet to come with a consensus platform for major policies and negotiation is the most possible thing that happen in politics.

Speaking of who will be the Prime Minister, the largest party in a coalition always supplies the Prime Minister. Since the VVD could be the majority, I think the Dutch could see Mark Rutte rule the Netherlands for at least the next 5 years. But the situation will be totally different as in the latest election. Unlike in 2012, which mainly focused on how to pull the country out of the economic recession, this year’s election is all about integration, immigration, education, healthcare, and the European Union. Forming the coalition has to be about a matter of mutual confidence and trust. In particularly in a political situation such as this in the Netherlands, it will not be easy to form a coalition since the power is fragmented and will be evenly distributed to at least six to seven parties.

Regardless of who will be the Prime Minister, other than Geert Wilders boviously, I think it has come to a crystal clear that this year’s Dutch election is clearly to prevent Wilders runs the country. Wilders may not be a Prime Minister, but it is just a matter of time he will be someday. What might happen is that PVV becomes the party with most seats. Nevertheless, what still needs to be done, for the parties like VVD and PvDA, is to reinvent themselves to gain the trust of the people and become more credible again.

The Dutch election shares the same issues with the other pivotal two: Germany and France. The West World faced no choices to choose. If these countries can survive and handle the threats from the far-right populism, they can not stand on where they are right now. There has to be a clear and promising reformation for the EU regarding the legislative, territorial, economic, and monetary sovereignty for the state members. If the populist group wins the whole game, the liberal world has to take a long retreat and hibernation until they can come back stronger and better.

Let see how the Dutch election will go. I will surely come up with the new article regarding the following result.